Changing Cuba Policy post-Castro

Castro stepping aside (and dying if we're lucky) should be the beginning of the end of our stupid Cuba policy. Castro's resignation wont make a real change in the country, but it is a symbolic turnover that could give us an opening for change. We can't take advantage, though, unless we elect the right candidate this fall.

Sanctions against Cuba may have made sense 50 years ago during the Cold War, but now they are outdated and, worse, they are ineffective. Sanctions are a form of coercive diplomacy meant to use one country's economic strength to force another country to adopt a certain policy. In this case, we are denying Cuba access to our economy until they liberalize their society, allow political freedom, and improve human rights. Because we're the U.S., "improving human rights" can be translated to "ending communism and spreading Christianity."

Sanctions can, in some cases, be an effective diplomacy tool. A positive example is Libya, which dismantled its nuclear weapons program and started cooperating on terror issues in exchange for an end to the economic sanctions (and presumably to avoid invasion, too). A less positive example is North Korea, which threatens to nuke South Korea if we begin sanctioning them. With the exception of a couple of weeks in 1962, Cuba has never had or tried to obtain nuclear weapons. Cuba has a communist regime, but what about that makes it different from any of the other communist regimes throughout history that we have not sanctioned? They have a horrible human rights record, but what makes it different from (insert Arab nation here), which the administration has no problem cozying up to? Not much, except for the sizable Cuban population in Florida.

But the dumbest thing about the Cuba embargo is we're the ONLY freakin' country that does it! I am an economics major, but it doesn't take an economics degree to realize that sanctions don't work when they are established by a single country. The theory behind an embargo is that the target country will be cut off from world trade. As it happens, Cuba is only cut off from the United States. They can trade with whoever else they want! And, in the increasingly globalized world economy, it is becoming easier and easier for them to do.

From an economic standpoint, we are hurting their economy a little because they are getting lower prices for their goods than they would if we competed for them. But we are also hurting our economy by not allowing Cuban goods into our marketplace. From a policy standpoint, this is a ridiculous policy because it hurts us both and accomplishes nothing. The little economic harm done to them by our sanctions is not going to overthrow that government; it will only breed resentment among the Cuban people. If we were to open our economy to Cuba we could help both economies, and get ACCESS to the Cuban people! If we want to have influence with Cubans, we need to reach them; the best way to do that is to do business with there.

I mentioned earlier that the Cuban population of Florida is why we still have this problem, and I stand by it. Republican politicians, like John McCain, need the support of Cubans in Miami in order to win Florida in presidential elections. And they need Florida if they want to win in the Electoral College. So, it is unlikely that electing another Republican will affect our policy towards Cuba. Would Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama change the policy? I don't know-they both say they will be more open to negotiating with countries that previous administrations have shut out. But I do have an idea of where in the country the candidates are competitive.

Hillary has campaigned on being more competitive in states that Democrats need to win in November. I take that, partially, as a reference to Florida, which she won handily over Barack Obama. She also does better against McCain in Florida than Obama does, indicating she will make a big play to win there in November (read: she will pander to Cubans). While I expect Obama also to make a play for Florida, I don't see Florida as a must-win for him in the same way it is for her. For example, a recent poll in Virginia shows him beating McCain, while Clinton loses there.

So, I see more of a chance in changing the Cuba policy under an Obama Presidency than under Clinton or McCain.